Market Forecasting

Market Forecasting is accomplished by the application of ROAM's advanced 2-4-C market dispatch system. This software forms the basis of our price, production, revenue, transmission flows and constraint analyses, as well as more complex studies involving combinations of varying effects in energy market systems.

 

A suite of in-house developed Excel tools are used to extract and prepare model results for analysis and eventual submission in report form to our clients.

 

Integrated Resource Planning

ROAM has developed an integrated resource planning (IRP) tool as part of the 2-4-C software suite. The IRP software allows for least-cost planning of generation infrastructure to secure a reliable energy supply for a period of time up to 30 years in advance. The software uses the classical dynamic programming branch of operations research theory to forecast the optimum configuration of different generating plant types for the planning horizon.

 

Integrated resource plans involve extensive 2-4-C trials of possible future generation augmentation paths followed by dynamic programming applied to 2-4-C outcomes to obtain a least-cost augmentation path. Complex effects such as Carbon / Renewables Trading can be captured in this framework.

 

Outcomes from IRP studies often form the basis of more specialised market forecasting studies using 2-4-C and / or Powerworld.

 

Marginal Loss Factor Forecasting

Marginal Loss Factor Forecasting for participants is carried out using our 2-4-C Market Dispatch engine, coupled with our Powerworld Simulation software. The process mimics NEMMCO's methodology for producing forward-looking maginal loss factors.

 

For an annual MLF forecast, half-hourly market dispatch outcomes are imported from the 2-4-C simulation outcomes into the Powerworld package, configured with a highly precise snapshot (including line and transformer configurations and parameters) of the electricity network using an in-house developed scripting interface.

 

The powerflows are then solved in full AC mode for each half-hour. Electrical penalty factors are extracted and aggregated into a highly accurate annual MLF estimate for the year.