ROAM Insight Back Catalogue

ROAM Insight Issue #14

Avid consumers of our Insight publication will be well aware that Issue #13 for 2009 never came to market. The end of 2009 was a turbulent time for greenhouse policy in the Federal parliament, with the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme voted down in the Senate in August. Amendments were made and on 24 November, the Government secured in-principle support for the bill from the Opposition. However, agreement was short-lived. On 1 December, Malcolm Turnbull lost the Liberal party leadership to Tony Abbott, who staunchly opposed the bill. The subsequent Senate vote on 2 December saw the CPRS defeated for a second time, creating a double dissolution election trigger.  The uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the UNFCCC Copenhagen conference on 6-18 December also dominated the policy discussion.

 

In such a rapidly changing environment, any report published would have been out of date within days. Moreover, ROAM was heavily engaged in assisting the AEMO and Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism with modelling for the National Transmission Network Development Plan and Energy White Paper.

 

We took the executive decision to postpone publication until there was greater policy clarity. With the result of the Federal election known and carbon pricing back on the table, we are pleased to present ROAM Insight Issue #14.

Analysis of the past :

Our popular review of the NEM has been expanded to cover the past two years since the publication of ROAM Insight #12. On average, the weather was very mild leading to energy usage and peak demands well below forecast expectations. However, extreme weather events also had a significant impact on the grid at times. The heatwave which sparked the tragic Victorian Black Saturday bushfires brought down a number of significant transmission lines and also shut down the Basslink interconnector to Tasmania. Wind generation has also increased, with just under 1000 MW of new wind farms commissioned in the past two years.  In every region, the incidence of negative price periods has increased markedly; of the total number of negative price periods since the formation of the NEM in 1998, more than half occurred in the past two years.

Insight into the future:

The hot topics are still the emissions reduction policies; in particular, the Expanded Renewable Energy Target, its division into the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target and Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, and the possible introduction of a price on carbon emissions in the near future. Several State and Territory governments have also introduced policies aimed at curbing emissions, some of which pertain specifically to the electricity sector. The emerging east coast LNG industry is another game changer with major implications for both supply and demand of electricity. All such developments will affect:

• market pool prices
• generator production volumes and revenues
• transmission utilisation and congestion
• estimated quantities of expected unserved energy by region, and much more.

ROAM Insight #14 presents ROAM’s insight into the future (2010-11 to 2015-16) based on the broad and deep knowledge gained by our consultants through completing a wide range of assignments over the past two years.  Key assignments include:

• Early planning for the National Transmission Network Development Plan and modelling for the Energy White Paper with AEMO and DRET
• Developing Minimum Reserve Levels for the NEM for the next two years with AEMO
• The Reliability Standard Settings Review with the AEMC
• The capability of transmission networks to cope with renewable generation to meet the eRET with the Clean Energy Council
• Links to these public reports and many more can be found here.

ROAM Insight Issue #12

ROAM Consulting is pleased to announce the release of ROAM Insight Issue #12. Since its first year of publication in 2000, ROAM Insight has become an invaluable reference for a wide range of participants in the Australian National Electricity Market.

Year in review:

ROAM Insight provides a review of key factors influencing operation of the NEM in 2008 including:

• The impacts of drought in the hydro systems of the NEM
• Analysis of the effects of weather on energy demand and prices in each region
• Effects of outlier events such as transmission outages and fuel constraints
• New generation developments in the NEM
• Analysis of new load and interconnector proposals

The detail of ROAM’s modelling capability was tested yet again with our involvement assisting stakeholders and the AEMC with the Review of Frequency Operating Standards for Tasmania. ROAM implemented full cooptimisation of FCAS markets and FCAS constraints including modelling of Basslink control systems in our 2-4-C dispatch engine. Benchmarking of 5-minute dispatch simulations against actual market history proved the technical capability of our modelling.

ROAM continued to provide the highest quality economic and technical market forecast to stakeholders spanning all aspects of the NEM and also provided assistance to NEMMCO and the AER throughout 2008 in the form of modelling expertise and assessment of market development options. The goal of the NEM continues to strive for the delivery of a secure energy supply at the least economic and social cost to consumers.

ROAM was pleased to provide an independent submission to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) Green Paper. ROAM was proud to provide modelling assistance to the Department of Climate Change in developing the White Paper for the CPRS.

All this has allowed us to broaden our experience and refine our capabilities regarding the big ticket issues facing the development of our sophisticated energy market. Now we can provide the insight we have gained to you.

Insight into the future:

In 2009, the detailed modelling which forms the basis for the ROAM Insight report takes the latest market trends, rules, design and policy changes into account. The document will invest within the reader an improved understanding of, and insight into the possible impacts of significant market developments including:

• The Commonwealth Governments White Paper outlining the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) initiative
• The Expanded Renewable Energy Targets (RET)
• How to model these policy developments
• The effect on:
1. Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector
2. Market pool prices
3. Generator production volumes and revenues
4. Transmission utilisation and congestion
5. Estimated quantities of expected Unserved Energy by region, and much more.

ROAM Insight Issue #12 reflects hundreds of hours of simulation on ROAM Consulting’s high speed computers, backed by our expert consultants’ analysis and detailed review of the simulation outcomes in preparing the report. This has been condensed into a succinct appraisal of the status of the NEM for the next six years to save you precious time and provide you with valuable insight.